Americans Are Starting to Feel the “Price of War” at the Gas Pump

For many Americans, rising gas prices are becoming impossible to ignore again. Drivers across the country are seeing more expensive fill ups, airlines are facing growing fuel costs ahead of the busy summer travel season, and businesses that rely on transportation are starting to feel additional pressure as energy prices continue climbing. Behind the scenes, energy analysts say those rising costs may be tied to something much larger than normal market fluctuations.

Jeremy A. Paul, CEO of Eagle Natural Resources, has been closely watching the shift and refers to it as the “Price of War” thesis, the idea that years of energy underinvestment combined with growing geopolitical instability are now colliding in ways consumers are beginning to experience directly. Oil prices have steadily climbed in recent months, with Brent crude hovering near the $100 per barrel mark while national gas averages continue rising across many parts of the United States. Industry insiders warn prices could move even higher if geopolitical tensions continue escalating or additional supply disruptions emerge globally.

According to Paul, much of the current pressure traces back to decisions made over the last decade when oil prices remained too low to justify many large scale energy investments. While lower prices benefited consumers in the short term, they also discouraged companies from committing billions toward long term drilling projects, offshore exploration, and infrastructure development. Now, experts say the industry is feeling the consequences of those delays.

Unlike many industries, oil production cannot rapidly increase overnight. Large scale energy projects often require years of planning and investment before production can begin. When investment slows for extended periods, future supply capacity can become increasingly limited. That’s part of why analysts believe energy markets remain especially vulnerable today.

The ongoing war in Ukraine, instability throughout parts of the Middle East, and concerns surrounding critical oil transit routes like the Strait of Hormuz have all added pressure to global energy markets. Even the possibility of disruptions in those regions can create volatility that quickly impacts pricing worldwide. Energy analysts say markets are reacting not only to current supply conditions, but also to fears surrounding future instability. When several geopolitical risks begin stacking together at the same time, those concerns often become reflected directly in oil prices.

Paul believes oil prices between $90 and $150 per barrel may ultimately be necessary to encourage enough long term investment to stabilize future supply. At those levels, projects previously viewed as too expensive to justify suddenly become viable again, including deepwater drilling operations and untapped reserves requiring massive upfront investment. But even if investment returns aggressively, rebuilding production capacity is still a slow process.

Over the last decade, many energy companies focused heavily on shorter cycle shale projects because they produced faster returns and carried less financial risk. While that approach helped increase domestic output in the short term, some critics argue it also reduced the broader system’s flexibility during periods of global disruption. Meanwhile, the effects are beginning to spread well beyond the energy industry itself.

Higher fuel prices impact nearly every sector of the economy, including shipping, manufacturing, travel, and food production. As transportation costs rise, many businesses eventually pass those expenses directly to consumers through higher prices on goods and services. Natural gas markets are also facing tighter conditions due to rising global demand and years of restrained investment. Some analysts warn volatility across energy markets could continue for years if production growth struggles to keep pace with geopolitical uncertainty and worldwide consumption needs.

At the same time, the industry is facing workforce challenges beyond drilling alone. Oil and gas production relies heavily on engineers, field operators, technicians, and infrastructure specialists, many of whom became harder to replace after years of slower sector growth. Supporters of increased domestic production argue that stronger supply capacity plays a major role in long term economic stability. When markets have adequate spare capacity, they are generally better positioned to absorb geopolitical disruptions without dramatic price spikes. But when supply remains tight, even smaller global events can send prices higher very quickly.

For consumers, that means the “Price of War” is now showing up in everyday costs, especially at the gas station.