Why Did Dan Crenshaw Lose? Steve Toth Pulls off Texas GOP Primary Upset

Rep. Dan Crenshaw just got booted out in his own backyard. Texas state Rep. Steve Toth has defeated Crenshaw in the Republican primary for Texas’s 2nd Congressional District, according to the Associated Press.

Voters didn’t just choose between two names. The Texas Secretary of State’s early Wednesday update listed four Republicans on the ballot in TX-02 — Toth, Crenshaw (incumbent), Martin Etwop, and N. Lee Plumb. In that update, Toth led Crenshaw by 9,915 votes (31,627 to 21,712), while the two other candidates trailed far behind.

Crenshaw’s loss may have surprised some voters, but several factors contributed to the outcome. For starters, he ran without President Donald Trump’s endorsement, which carries major weight in a Republican primary. According to the AP, Crenshaw was the only Texas House GOP incumbent running this cycle who did not receive Trump’s backing. Meanwhile, Toth gained backing from allies like Sen. Ted Cruz and the activist group Turning Point Action, according to The Texas Tribune.

Crenshaw’s reputation for occasionally breaking from the party’s hard-right wing also became a liability in the primary. The AP reported that some conservative voters criticized him for not fully aligning with Trump’s agenda and for acknowledging Joe Biden’s 2020 election win as legitimate.

Redistricting added another factor to the race. According to The Houston Chronicle, Texas’s 2nd Congressional District was redrawn to be more conservative, a shift that ultimately helped Toth gain an edge with primary voters.

Despite the AP calling the race, Crenshaw has not formally conceded. Meanwhile, Toth has started celebrating the win. He suggested his victory signals that voters are rejecting Republicans who shift positions after taking office. “This campaign has been a referendum on representatives who campaign one way and govern another, and the people have spoken,” Toth said in a statement to the AP.

Meanwhile, Crenshaw didn’t offer a big concession speech Tuesday night. The Houston Chronicle reported that a spokesperson said he wouldn’t comment on the results.

Crenshaw is a former Navy SEAL who lost his right eye after an improvised explosive device hit him in Afghanistan in 2012, according to the AP. He has focused on issues such as blocking federal funding for gender-affirming care and targeting Mexican drug cartels. At the same time, he has clashed with parts of his own party over support for Ukraine aid and his stance on certifying the 2020 presidential election.

On Capitol Hill, Crenshaw serves on the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence and the House Energy and Commerce Committee, according to his official House website and the House Clerk. However, Toth now heads toward the general election as the Republican nominee in Texas’ 2nd Congressional District.